Friday, September 16, 2011
Maue, R.N. 2011. Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity. Geophysical Research Letters 38: 10.1029/2011GL047711.
Climate alarmists have long contended that tropical cyclone (TC) activity -- in terms of frequency, intensity and their interaction -- tends to rise with an increase in sea surface temperature. But is this claim correct?
What was done
In the latest study to broach this question, Maue (2011) obtained global TC life cycle data from the IBTrACS database of Knapp et al. (2010), which contains six-hourly best-track positions and intensity estimates for the period 1970-2010, from which he calculated the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) metric (Bell et al., 2000), which is analogous to the power dissipation index (PDI) used by Emanuel (2005) in his attempt to convince the world of the truth of the climate-alarmist claim.
What it means
In view of the fact that "there is no significant linear trend in the frequency of global TCs," in agreement with the analysis of Wang et al. (2010), plus the fact that the earth is experiencing "this current period of record inactivity," as Maue describes the situation in the final six words of his paper, it would appear that the long-held climate-alarmist contention that global warming increases the frequency and intensity of tropical storms is simply not true.
Read more here